The Rise, and Fall, and Rise Again of Imran Khan

 

Mr. Khan’s success was fueled by social media, which drove Pakistan’s young people to turn out to vote and rebuff the country’s powerful military.

When Pakistan’s government censored the media, former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party posted campaign videos on TikTok. When the police barred his supporters from holding rallies, they hosted virtual gatherings online.

And when Mr. Khan ended up behind bars, his supporters produced speeches using artificial intelligence to simulate his voice.

Mr. Khan’s message resonated with millions across the country who were frustrated by the country’s economic crisis and old political dynasties: Pakistan has been on a steep decline for decades, he explained, and only he could restore its former greatness.

The success of candidates aligned with Mr. Khan’s party in last week’s election — snagging more seats than any other in Parliament — was a stunning upset in Pakistani politics. Since Mr. Khan fell out with the country’s generals and was ousted by Parliament in 2022, his supporters had faced a military-led crackdown that experts said was designed to sideline the former prime minister.

His success marked the first time in Pakistan’s recent history that the political strategy used by the country’s powerful military for decades to keep its grip on power had suddenly veered off course. It also proved how Mr. Khan’s populist rhetoric and the country’s internet-savvy youth bulge are rewriting politics in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people that has struggled with military coups since its founding 76 years ago.

Young supporters of Mr. Khan on election day in Lahore.Credit...

Now, as the parties of both Mr. Khan and Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister, race to win over other lawmakers and establish a coalition government, Pakistan is in uncharted territory. If Mr. Khan’s party succeeds — an outcome many analysts believe is unlikely — it would be the first time in Pakistan’s history that a civilian government would be led by a party at odds with the military and whose leader is behind bars.

No matter the outcome, Mr. Khan’s party “proved it is an unshakable political presence, tapping into the dissatisfaction of Pakistan’s youth,” said Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, a Washington-based think tank. “The old playbook for shaping the country’s politics is outdated; social media and youth mobilization have become game changers.”

For roughly half of Pakistan’s history, the military has ruled the country directly. When civilian governments have been allowed to come to power, they were led by a handful of leaders — including Mr. Khan’s rival in this election, Mr. Sharif — who were typically ushered into power with the support of the generals.

Those military-aligned leaders built political parties around their family dynasties, passing party leadership from one generation to another — and keeping political power within a tightknit circle. But in recent years, as the country’s young population has ballooned to around half its electorate, there has been a growing frustration with that system, analysts say.

Young people felt shut out of Pakistan’s political system because “someone in the family will always get the top slot,” said Zaigham Khan, a political analyst based in Islamabad. “The old parties are becoming obsolete because they refuse to change — and that created a vacuum for someone like Imran Khan.”

While Mr. Khan initially rose to political prominence with the military’s help, after his ouster he capitalized on young people’s yearning for change to strengthen his political base independent of the generals. His party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or P.T.I., produced political campaigns on social media — outside the reach of state censorship — that young people say stirred a political awakening for their generation.

In viral videos, Mr. Khan railed against the country’s generals, whom he blamed for his ouster in 2022. He described how the military operated like a “deep state” governing politics from behind the scenes, and claimed that the United States had colluded with Pakistani officials on his removal from power. He described himself as a reformer who would bring change.

His message galvanized young people across the country.

“I’m voting for change. I’m fed up with this whole system of political parties that have been running the country,” said Usman Saeed, 36, as he stood outside a polling station in Lahore on Thursday after casting his vote for P.T.I. candidates. “They’ve put Imran Khan in jail — that’s the main issue — it shows it’s all been managed by the establishment,” he added, referring to the military.

Few of these voters remembered the discontent of Mr. Khan’s last months in office, when his popularity plummeted as inflation soared. Had he been allowed to complete his term, many analysts said, his party likely would not have won the next general elections.